The Basketball Thread

[Arkandel]

@Warma-Sheen Well, so what's your conspiracy theory?

[Ganymede]

I think that the Warriors thought they could come back from behind, as they did with Portland. I don't think they expected that the Raptors would be as stout as they were on defense, and I don't think they had a game plan for protecting the paint against Siakam's and Gasol's attacks in the paint.

I concur with Arkandel: no matter how much of a force Cousins may be, he's coming off of a serious injury and hasn't played for a couple of months. But without Cousins or Durant, the Warriors can't guard the paint. Green is an excellent defender, but he clearly looked tired and managed only 10 points.

The Raptors' versatility is what makes them successful. They can keep a game close by shifting their plan of attack, all while maintaining vigorous defense (how or why did Green manage to get 2 blocks from the SG position?). Looking at the minutes, it seemed like the Raptors mostly stayed small, but got a lot of contribution from their bigs, and that made all the difference. If they can take the second game, and one in the Oracle, the Warriors are going to be in deep trouble.

[BobGoblin]

How many series have been over analyzed this year after one or two games?

Celtics are a lock

Philly is a lock

Rockets will get swept
Oops Durant's our warriors will lose

Too much over analyzing and reaction to single games.

[Auspice]

@BobGoblin said in The Basketball Thread:

How many series have been over analyzed this year after one or two games?

Celtics are a lock

Philly is a lock

Rockets will get swept
Oops Durant's our warriors will lose

Too much over analyzing and reaction to single games.

isn't that the requirement of sports?

Every single year it seems people proclaim 'this is the year' for the Lions during preseason for the NFL. It's just what fans do.

[Warma Sheen]

@Arkandel I don't know. But nothing normal makes sense. Like @Ganymede said, I also think they thought they could just come back. But how would they do that without 3s? Trading 2s doesn't get it done. It just keeps things even. I kept waiting for the 3s to rain, but they came from the bench, not the starters. The starters, just kept faking 3s then stepping in a few feet and shooting a long 2. It was just weird. I guess I'm just mostly surprised no one else thought something was off.

As for wild conspiracy theories, the only thing I keep thinking about was when the Seattle Seahawks lost to the Patriots with the interception. They could have handed the ball to Marshawn Lynch who the Patriots D could not stop. He was getting 3 yards every carry. But they called a pass and then came the interception.

Afterwards there was a lot of insider talk that they wanted their star QB to win the game, be the hero and help end the rift in the locker room. Russell Wilson, the Super Bowl winning MVP was the future of their franchise - not Marshawn Lynch, the problematic, unpredictable, anti-media thug who was up for contract next year and was already rumored to be planning to hold out for a big contract.

So with Kevin Durant going into free agency, and all the talk that has been going around about how the Warriors can win without him, is ther eany chance, they took themselves down a notch to give KD the opportunity to come back and "win it for them"? It shows everyone that he's not an extra piece the Warriors they don't need, but a crucial part of the team that he should build his legacy around? It sounds like a crazy person talking, but it sounds less crazy than any explanation of why the Warriors stars refuse to shoot 3s in the last quarter of the game.

Stout defense? If they shot a bunch and missed, I might take that answer, but there's no way the defense was so tight they didn't even try to shoot. We've all seen Curry and Thompson drain threes with people molded to their faces. We know they can do it, they know they can do it. Still, I watched the game so I can tell you that was not the case, but even if it was, I refuse to believe they wouldn't still try, even if just to try to draw a foul and get three free throws. That sounds crazier than the Warriors throwing the game to extend the series long enough for KD to come back and be the hero.

P.S. This is the year for the Lions. Guaranteed.

[Ganymede]

@Warma-Sheen said in The Basketball Thread:

Stout defense? If they shot a bunch and missed, I might take that answer, but there's no way the defense was so tight they didn't even try to shoot. We've all seen Curry and Thompson drain threes with people molded to their faces. We know they can do it, they know they can do it. Still, I watched the game so I can tell you that was not the case, but even if it was, I refuse to believe they wouldn't still try, even if just to try to draw a foul and get three free throws.

Stout defense and being unable to stop the Raptors in the paint. Both were used to keep the Warriors off their game.

On defense, the teams matched up very evenly for steals and rebounds, but the Warriors had more takeaways and the Raptors more blocks. The Raptors beat the Warriors in the shooting categories, save for FT%.

As for the paint, Green and Looney each had 5 fouls that game, but Gasol and Siakam still scored 50+ points. Cousins made none of his shots (only points came on free throws), and Green and Looney were held to less than 20.

If the Warriors don't adjust to contain Gasol and Siakam again, they will simply pound the ball in. If there's a double-team, they'll kick out to VanFleet, Lowry, or Green for the open 3. It seemed that every time Curry attempted to cut, he got fouled before he could make a key play. And if I had to place a bet on injuries, I'd say that both Curry and Thompson are nursing undisclosed injuries, which would explain why they aren't hitting the 3s and why the Raptors beat the Warriors on fast-break points.

[Arkandel]

After all the Games of Thrones theories I don't want to overcomplicate my brain.

This looks fairly simple to me: Toronto is a far superior defense than the Warriors had to face in the playoffs for this year - or even in the West. Other than for Memphis and the Spurs I can't think of robust defensive lineups the last several years. Well, they hit a wall.

They also have an injured KD and a rusty Boogie - plus, I hear, a hobbled Iggy. Well, with a lineup this top-heavy they don't have much of a bench behind these guys.

The testament to the Warriors' greatness (I dislike the team but I have to give kudos where they're deserved) is that even so, even playing in Toronto, they still trailed close by no more than a few points the whole game. That's impressive as fuck.

I think game 2 might be a different story. If it's not and they need to win 4 out of 5 for their title... well, we'll see, but it's much harder then. Game 2 is their chance.

[Warma Sheen]

@Ganymede said in The Basketball Thread:

And if I had to place a bet on injuries, I'd say that both Curry and Thompson are nursing undisclosed injuries, which would explain why they aren't hitting the 3s and why the Raptors beat the Warriors on fast-break points.

I'd agree if they were taking a bunch of threes and missing. But they weren't. They were hitting. Shooting 50% on 3s is great. The fact that they just stopped shooting them toward the end of the game... that's just weird.

But I'm just gonna wear my tin foil hat till Sunday and yell at the TV while I take my notes and file them behind the Roswell aliens, the 2nd gunman in Dallas, and the moon landing (the shadows are off, the shadows are off...)

[BobGoblin]

Begin over analysis

Toronto will take one in oracle. Golden State wins in 6. They'll get a desperation win buyback if you can't close out against people walking in off the street then you won't finish it off

[Arkandel]

There's no real room for analysis. Both teams missed open shots (the Raptors more than the Warriors) but basically in the Finals you can't let the other team go 18-0 on you and expect to win.

Toronto lost the game in those 4-5 minutes of the 3rd quarter.

[Warma Sheen]

Analysis: Raptors are done. Warriors in 5. Unless the Raptors win the next one, in which case: Warriors are done. Raptors in 6. That seems to be how analysis is done these days.

Otherwise, I didn't notice anything hinky in the last game and I was paying attention. Curry was off on his shooting, but that happens every now and again. Cousins played great and validated (very briefly) what everyone keeps saying about him. I give him credit for the fact that he played a lot more minutes than he was supposed to. Hope those injuries on aren't serious. I hate when the series is decided by who is not playing. Except in KD's case. I'm okay with him being gone.

I don't know the Raptors that well, but obviously a 20 point swing is gonna kill any team. That was a bad stretch where they couldn't hit a thing. Rough. Though it does say something that they still almost won. I do hate when teams play 'not to lose' like the Warriors did when they tried to slow things down and run the clock for the full 24 only to end up being forced into bad shots at the end. I think it hurts more than helps to take the 'bleed slowly' option. But that's a legit tactic.

[Arkandel]

@Warma-Sheen I learned basketball in Europe where killing the clock is not just a legitimate but a go-to tactic if you're ahead near the end of regulation.

In fact I'm still shocked watching NBA games at teams' refusal to gamble on sending their opposing team's worst shooters to the free throw line; if, for example, the Raptors had sent Draymond to the line instead of giving Iggy the widest open 3 possible they might have had a chance to tie the game.

[BobGoblin]

Raptors coach was yelling at them to foul draymond. Raptors players were too wrapped up. Kawhi is a great player but he isn't a floor general to lead his troops in those minutes

[Ganymede]

The Warriors dropped two at home.

Prognostications?

[Arkandel]

@Ganymede I think it's over. Toronto is about to go fucking bananas.

[Ganymede]

@Arkandel said in The Basketball Thread:

Toronto is about to go fucking bananas.

[Warma Sheen]

I saw them losing the second one. No Thompson? Not great odds. Even with Curry dropping 47. But not yesterday. That was a shock. Obviously, Thompson wasn't 100%, but it seemed to affect them more on defense than on offense. Toronto is on that hustle.

Also, what happened to Cousins? He had one great game, then disappeared. Only 19 minutes in game 4, 1-7 shooting. Just when I was about to get on board with him, he goes out and shows me why I think he's overrated.

Anyone think Durant is gonna strap on a cape and come save the day? Or is it really an achilles tear that he has and not just a calf strain?

[Arkandel]

@Warma-Sheen I think it's just time. Grade 2 calf strains take 4-8 weeks and it's only been a month. What I'm reading (and I mean... there's no way to know truth from fiction with all these reporters trying to bait clicks) is KD has still been unable to have full court practice without his foot bothering him considerably.

He's just not ready. And they may be about to run out of time.

[Warma Sheen]

I'm surprised at how sloppy Golden State is as a team. I've noticed over the last couple of games and held off mentioning in case it was a fluke, but no. They are just horribly undisciplined. Besides the bad passes that the announcers have mentioned, there's no hustle for rebounds on most plays and no hustle back on defense for at least one person on every play. Its kind of embarrassing.

Yeah, they won tonight, but they aren't the better team on the court and you can feel it consistently. Golden State has better players. Toronto has the better team.

Edit: Also, props to Durant. He clearly wasn't ready to come back and he tried anyway and risked a lot.

[Arkandel]

@Warma-Sheen It's because they've had the luxury of such overwhelming talent they didn't need to have discipline. They had three all-time great scorers and a couple of really good defensive guys.

I think the Raptors can take a game in Oakland again without Durant there.