Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.

[mietze]

But just today at work I had 4 customers in tears. One because she found out both of her parents tested presumptive positive and now they are in lockdown (they're in their 90s). Two business owners who came in to say it would probably be the last cash deposit for awhile because they are having to temporarily close because they arent getting enough business and it makes more economic sense to close for a bit. A server who brings in her tips after each shift who has had her hours reduced to the point she is worried about keeping her apartment.

I have a favorite customer who I had not seen in a couple of weeks, they are hospitalized and fighting for their life. I cried with their adult daughter who came in for them.

And we are weeks away from the true ramp up and hospitals are hitting the current capacity.

What is going on in my community is not something I would wish on anyone. And we ain't seen nothing yet and are more prepared than many other areas of the country are going to be.

[Kestrel]

@bored said in Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.:

It's worth pointing out that the %'s are very guesswork-y and vary considerably between reporting institution, so hanging on single % changes is not particularly meaningful (apparently people were accusing my governor of conspiracy theory-esque minimizing the threat because he quoted a lower %, but it was simply from a different source). These are also likely to be higher than the actual mortality rate, because people who are mildly or non-symptomatic account for the bulk of cases yet rarely make it into the statistics at all.

They are valuable in a comparative sense because other illnesses are measured the same way, with the same flaws, and these %s are an order of magnitude higher than typical flu mortality.

The percentages also vary considerably by age group.

For people under 40, the mortality rate is around 0.2%, and the WHO has said that 80% of people who contract the disease will experience only very mild symptoms. I'm under 40, live in a crowded city, am in excellent physical health, and lately I've been sniffling a bit. For all I know I could've already contracted it and just not know it. Most of the people hoarding obsessively really don't need to, and I'm not going to. I'm pretty sure I'll be just fine; I'm more worried about the risk of infecting other people, if I do (or have) contract(ed) it.

For people over 80 however, the risk is 14.8% — 21.9% (total estimate, vs. based only on confirmed cases). It's also killing men more than women, and is significantly higher for people with preexisting health conditions like heart disease.

So while the overall mortality rate is 2% — 3.4%, that's not a useful number for anyone looking to evaluate their or their loved ones' personal risk. It's mostly just useful for estimating what chunk of the population we're likely to see wiped out by the numbers.

Keep your grandparents home safe, fam.

[Tinuviel]

@Kestrel said in Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.:

For people over 80 however, the risk is 14.8% — 21.9% (total estimate, vs. based only on confirmed cases).

Is this higher than 'typical' coronavirus (as in the category of virus) cases for that age group?

[insomniac7809]

King of Prussia will remain open for our retailers, and we are leaving it to them to decide whether they remain open or close. With respect to Governor Wolf’s statement today, the Governor did not mandate store closures and did not define what nonessential retail is. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will comply with any federal, state or local government requirements as they arise. We will keep you posted on any new developments

"When it comes to the safety of our customers and our workers, we will be taking any and every step required of us by force of law."

[Kestrel]

@Tinuviel Yes, by quite a bit, both in terms of contagion rate and lethality. I don't have exact numbers for comparison and I'm not a doctor. But:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

It's also worth bearing in mind we've had generations to build up immunity to the common flu whereas COVID-19 is a "new" virus. So, long-term, this might just end up being another kind of illness we have to get used to over time and/or through vaccines. The other alternative was that the virus be successfully contained, but that seems like a bit of a lost cause now, at least where I live. It hasn't hit London hard just yet, but there are confirmed cases in multiple boroughs, including the one where I live and several adjacent to it, and going by how quickly it's spread in other countries I'd be genuinely surprised if I don't end up catching it, or haven't yet.

I'm actually not worried, but I understand why other people are. It's just that of all the bad things going on in the world right now, while I feel sympathy for those more likely to be personally affected, this particular crisis is much less likely to affect me or anyone I'm close to. I have more to fear from, for example, environmental catastrophe and fascism in the not too distant future.

[faraday]

@Tinuviel said in Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.:

Is this higher than 'typical' coronavirus (as in the category of virus) cases for that age group?

The "typical" coronavirus is just a common cold which doesn't kill anybody.

For the flu - CDC numbers show about a 0.8% mortality for age 65+ compared to .1% across all ages.

With COVID-19, estimates vary, but in the ballpark of 1-2% across all ages and 10-20% for the elderly.

So in both cases, the elderly are 8-10 times more likely to have more serious outcomes, but COVID itself is 10x as serious. So that's a hefty difference.

The real issue here is not the percentages, it's the quantity based on the speed and scope of the outbreak. We get ~500,000 hospitalizations in the US annually from the flu over the span of several months, and that is a moderate but predictable strain on our healthcare system. Add in another few hundred thousand cases on top of that in a few weeks and the system quickly starts to break down, as it has in Italy.

It will be a tremendous inconvenience for me to have my kids off school for the next 2-4 weeks, but I accept that this is necessary to protect the community and slow the spread of this thing.

[Kestrel]

My family: When are you going to get a real job?
My psychiatrist: There's no need to wash your hands obsessively. What are you afraid might happen?

Me, with OCD, hand sanitiser in every handbag and coat pocket for years, able to work flexibly from home:

[silverfox]

My school just announced that we will close as of monday and I am devastated. I know it is a good thing for public health but...

God my kids.

[Goblin]

@mietze so confused. You dont get paid as working normally though this? You have to use sick days (and wow the idea there is even such a thing just blows my mind, like your body is a clock you can time to a certain number of days to be sick) and vacation time?!!!

[insomniac7809]

@Goblin said in Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.:

You have to use sick days (and wow the idea there is even such a thing just blows my mind, like your body is a clock you can time to a certain number of days to be sick)

Of course it isn't a machine you can time to a certain number of days it can be sick.

It's a machine that has a certain amount of scheduled maintenance allotted. If if goes over that, clearly it needs to be replaced with a model that isn't defective.

[Tinuviel]

@insomniac7809 said in Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.:

clearly it needs to be replaced with a model that isn't defective.

A newer model, that doesn't cost as much.

[mietze]

@Goblin nope. If I have to take care of my kids (not usually a problem because I took this job specifically because it aligns with school hours) due to the governor's mandate to close all K-12 schools in my county I can use family sick time, vacation, or take unpaid leave.

[Selira]

@Goblin This is America. Don't catch you slippin' up...

[kk]

My thoughts and prayers are with those effected. I am will be wishing Mietze and her family to get through this well. I don't know Mietze's player at least not that I know of, but her posts here have always impressed me with their insight and clarity. I am effected by the situation as well and I find reading her posts encouraging. I think she is a great mother and her family is blessed to have her. The love she has for those around her really comes through.

SilverFox, I am sorry about your school and am wishing you and your students the best. Thanks for caring so much about your students.

Arx can be wonderful community and I am deeply thankful the many friends that I made there. In the time of quarantines, it can be likely a great outlet for many.

While dealing with the outbreak - I am personally asking that people give me a bit of understanding if I miss a page, discord message, messenger or don't rp much. I don't know how much I will be rping really. I also just to lower any stress as much possible ask that nobody ask for me anything ooc that is game related. Asking ic is fine and I love to hear from friends oocly just not when attached to any ooc requests for ascii, training or etc.

I am wishing everyone well. I am grateful that we have understanding and supportive staff who get that real life comes first and really to wish the best for their players.

[JinShei]

In the UK, our government has made some interesting decisions that the people who study this shit are saying are poor choices.

My students may have to stay in practice, and are in no way prepared. I'm a nurse but haven't been on a ward for twenty years, and am asthmatic so... If they do release staff, I'm not going in.

But look at figures from South Korea where testing is more thorough than any other country so far.

Edit: https://mobile.twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1235331199805149185 as some data.

[Tinuviel]

@JinShei said in Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.:

In the UK, our government has made some interesting decisions that the people who study this shit are saying are poor choices.

So business as usual, then.

[JinShei]

@Tinuviel said in Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.:

@JinShei said in Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.:

In the UK, our government has made some interesting decisions that the people who study this shit are saying are poor choices.

So business as usual, then.

Yup. There is a little bit of me that is glad that Nadine Dorris has it, and therefore will have given it to the people making these choices... Let them try this herd immunity theory first.

[Goblin]

Sweden is a bit slow with Coronavirus prep but they have closed down any gathering above 500 people. Bunch of sport events cancelled and concerts and stuff. Government also decided to pay everyone first sick day (in Sweden your first sick Day you dont get any money, after that you get like 80% of your salary). No schools closing yet, or work places. My job is essential for various reasons so I cant work from home.

It is just starting to feel tense and uncertain. Not worried about myself, but my parents are in their 70s.

[Tinuviel]

@Goblin said in Real World Peeves, Disgruntlement, and Irks.:

Sweden is a bit slow with Coronavirus prep but they have closed down any gathering above 500 people

Ah, so that's where my lot got the number from. I knew it was too precise a number for them to have come up with it on their own.

[Goblin]

@Tinuviel You got Swedish friends/relatives?

Either or, least I am as much a hermit as one can get almost, apart from going to work and to shops when I have to. I won't miss anything.

I feel real sorry for people that have paid large sums of money for vacations abroad however, but necessity has no law.