@thatguythere said in The Football Thread:
I thought that as soon as the Pats won the AFC championship, Belichek and Patricia with two weeks to prepare will eat Foles alive, I think the Eagles D will keep the score from getting out of hand though.
Here's some food for thought:
The Vikings had the best total defense during the regular season at 275.9 YPG. Foles made almost 80% of his passes against them. Philly had the 4th best total defense at 306.5 YPG; New England had the 29th rated defense at 366.0 YPG.
New England had the best total offense during the regular season at 394.2 YPG. Philly had the 7th with 365.8 YPG.
Looking closely at their offenses, Philly averaged 4.5 Yds/A on the ground to New England's 4.2 Yds/A. Philly averaged 132.2 Yds/G on the ground to New England's 118.1 Yds/G. New England creams Philly in the air, though, with 7.9 Yds/A and 276 Yds/G against 7.0 Yds/A and 234 Yds/G. But their PPG are the same, at 28.6.
Look closely at their defenses, Philly had more passes defended and more interceptions. New England had more sacks.
In the post season, Philly is 3rd and 2nd in total offense and defense, respectively. New England is 4th and 3rd, with a 4.0 and 12.5 YPG difference in each category.
So, it's not so clean and easy. The Patriots are thin at linebacker and their secondary. They allowed 39% of 3rd Down Attempts to convert (20th), whereas the Eagles allowed 32% (3rd). They are a tad worse at Pts./G than the Eagles, but not significantly.
But where things break down is in Yards/Play, where the Patriots are giving up an astounding 5.7 Yds/P, and the Eagles are only giving up 5.0 Yds/P. That means, for every three downs, the Patriots are giving up an extra 2.1 yards.
It's a bit more of a toss-up, I'd say. Your stats edge goes to Philly, but New England's still pretty solid.